By IndiaTomorrow.net,
Among the many challenges that Islamic State of Iraq and Levant throws to the polity of the West Asian nations is that it challenges the existence of a nation state – ideally home to various religious communities and even multiple sects of a particular community. Absence of democracy and rights leads to emergence and acceptability of such groups, an expert said.
The ISIS wants to establish a new sectarian order, whose goals are not clear and which is based upon a mythical idea of binding a religious community wedded to a particular religious ideology.
“The fragmentation and Balkanization has already taken place. The ISIS has money. The Iraqi army is very weak, not trained to handle such situation. Most of the militants have joined ISIS. The Taliban has also extended support to it. It has become very powerful. They have potential to destroy many nations. Countries like Mali, Chad, and Yemen are already in crisis. Countries from Pakistan to Morocco are in dangerous volatile situation. Instability will further grow,” well known West Asian politics expert Prof Qamar Agha told IndiaTomorrow.net.
“They are not only against Shias but also against Sunnis who do not adhere to their version of Islam. Once the US withdrew from Iraq leaving a vacuum, Saddam loyalists and al-Qaeda joined hands and took over. They have local Sunni support. The ISIS in their ranks has large number of nationals from Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Bangladesh, Europe and Canada. The West Asian regimes are failing in absence of democracy. There is no imminent threat to Saudi regime. What is happening in Saudi is difficult to come out but these regimes are not popular,” Agha said.
The surging rise of the extremist group which is considered an ally of al-Qaeda throws the biggest challenge to the existence to the states like Iraq and Syria and the insurgent group’s idea of Islamic caliphate not only challenges pan-Islamism at the broader level but excludes Shias and Alawites, who are the receiving end of the group. Secondly, the idea of Islamism of ISIS will always be devoid of pan-Islamism for the simple reason that the movement has taken birth due to denial of Sunni political autonomy by the Shia regime in Baghdad as well as Alawite regime in Damascus.
The imminent threat that this group poses is balkanization of Iraq and Syria to begin with. Virtually the entire West Asian population has been fragmented on sectarian ethos as a result of developments that took place in the region in the last one decade with the beginning of the Iraq war for search of weapons of mass destruction in that country.
The fundamental question that would come up for the region is: Will the political instability pave the way for redrawing of the map of West Asia? The western nations would like the map to be drawn in a way that it suits their economic interest as they did post World War 1. The Kurds have virtually maintained good ties with US and other nations and people of their ethnic origin are also found in Turkey, which has been opposed to the idea of Kurdistan amid demands of Kurdish dominated areas clamouring for integration with the country that is carved out of Iraq.
Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Israel were created by Britain and France to suit their own economic interest and give protection to war time allies with the prime aim of not only securing oil but also the routes to pump out oil from the region that was essential for their economic hegemony but since inception these new states were struggling to come to terms with contradictions posed by ethnicity, interreligious conflicts and tribal affiliations, that is now being exposed in pulls and pushes in Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
The kind of polity that exists in at least two of the states – Iraq and Syria where complex mix of populations resides who share contradictory notions of Islam and being Muslim may pave the way for their balkanization of their territories in coming years. Iraq may be redrawn into north-Kurdistan, central-Sunni region and South-Shia region. Most of the Iraq’s oil is found in north and south of the country. Even the way Libya has become destabilized after the overthrow of strong ruler Muammar Gaddafi explains that countries like these lacked any institutional mechanism that technically binds a modern nation-sate and the idea of the state crumbled with the removal of the ruler.
The biggest challenge will be who will be exercising political control over these fragmented states and what would be the period of instability and how long they would be jeopardizing regional peace. The situation will become messy further because forces like ISIS whose main aim is to establish an Islamic order which is narrow and parochial and the western regimes who want nation states that would suit their political and economic goals due to the presence of vast reserves of oil in the region. The emergence of forces like ISIS and the interference of western powers in the states of Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia is An indication that these states are not sovereign identities and do not adhere to Westphalian concept of sovereignty where external forces do not interfere in domestic social, economic and political structure of the nation state.
The biggest phenomenon that provides stability to the social, economic and political structure of the state is the ability of the government to provide life, security and basic civic amenities but as multiple groups are emerging in socially fragmented polities of West Asia in countries like Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Yemen, the emerging groups instead of taking care of the people’s need are fighting not only external interference of foreign powers but also among themselves. Thus the western model of state order that emerged after the war is facing collapse and the region may be trying to build up an order on its own terms of internal mechanism but western powers will again try to interfere in the process trying their level best that the map is drawn to suit their economic and political ambitions in the region. The biggest challenge in the making of this economic order is the tribal nature of political structure where violence dominates the political decision making process.
Iran is the only country in the region where there are structures and which support the stability of the nation state, despite the fact that it was at the receiving end of Saddam Hussain’s onslaught during the 1980-90 Iran and Iraq war. But Iraq lacking that strong structure plunged itself into an avoidable war with Kuwait under the political naïve leadership of Saddam Hussain plunging the region and the entire West Asian population into chaos.
